Ritik Gupta
Germany ranks first in the PHDCCI International Economic Resilience (IER) Rank, followed by India and South Korea at second and third positions, respectively, according to the report released by industry body PHDCCI.
India will emerge as the most resilient economy after Germany in 2021, exhibiting a robust “economic resurgence” to the global economic turmoil caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a report.
Germany ranks first in the PHDCCI International Economic Resilience (IER) Rank, followed by India and South Korea at second and third positions, respectively, according to the report released by industry body PHDCCI.
IER (International Economic Resilience) Rank of the Top 10 Countries in the year 2021
Source: Ph.D. Research Bureau, Compiled from IMF World Economic Outlook Update, January 2021 and IMF estimates of WEO 2020
Note: The value of the IER Rank in column (2) is calculated based on the analysis of column (8), which gives the aggregate of ranks of each of the five leading indicators. Lower the score of column (8), the better is the IER Rank in column (2).
IER Rank for South Korea and China is estimated at 3 and 4 respectively for the year 2021. Canada, France, Japan and the USA have shared the same IER Rank of 5. This is followed by Italy and the UK with their IER Ranks at 6 and 7 respectively. In order to determine the International Economic Resilience (IER) Rank, all the five considered leading parameters have been ranked on the basis of their performance among the top ten leading economies, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal.
Among the five economic indicators, India’s rank is No. 1 in terms of Real GDP growth rate at 11.5% followed by China and France with their real GDP growth at 8.2% and 6.0% respectively. With India projected to be at first position in its merchandise export volume growth at 14.0%, this is followed by Canada and U.S.A. at 9.9% and 9.7% respectively, he said.
The Current Account Balance (% of GDP) is estimated to be the highest for Germany at 6.8% followed by South Korea at 3.4%. South Korea is projected to have No. 1 rank for the parameters of General government net lending/borrowing (% of GDP) and Gross Debt to GDP ratio. Indian gross debt to GDP ratio is projected to be the fourth lowest among the world leading economies in the year 2021, added Mr. Aggarwal.
Amidst the dynamic reforms by the Government supported by prompt liquidity monetary measures by the RBI, Indian economy has been moving forward to contain the spread of the virus, providing relief for vulnerable sections, and overcoming vaccine-related challenges, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal.
With pandemic relatively under control and economic activities steadily thriving, the economic recovery is apparent through the positive performance of the high frequency economic and business indicators of the recent months, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal.
The growth promising Sectors for the Indian economy in the new year 2021 include Agri & food processing, Real estate, Infrastructure, Automobiles, Information Technology, E-Commerce, Health, FMCG, Telecom, Over The Top (OTT) Market and Financial Technology (Fintech) industry. Greater facilitation of the agricultural and allied sector would help prevent adverse supply-side ripple effects of the pandemic, while further strengthening ‘vocal for local’, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal.
Measures undertaken now to fortify the digital economy, accelerated growth in industry 4.0 would go a long way to mitigate the daunting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and hence refuel the growth vehicle for a journey to the US $ 5 trillion economy, said Mr.. Sanjay Aggarwal.
The year 2020 has demonstrated to be a time of key paradigm shift both for the Indian start-up and investor ecosystems. At this juncture, the year 2021 holds great promise of growth in the sectors like health-tech and ed-tech among others, whose trajectories have been supported by the series of structural reforms by the government, said Mr. Agarwal.
Further strengthening of ease of doing business in India, greater revitalisation of credit cycle and ensuring flexible employee working arrangements would help expedite the path of management of COVID-19 pandemic and rekindle robust, sustainable and equitable growth trajectory, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal.
Going forward in the New Year 2021, an even greater conjunction of substantially targeted fiscal and monetary measures is required to further support the affected households and businesses while bolstering up the path of strong V-shaped recovery, said Mr. Sanjay Aggarwal.
It is based on analysis of five lead macroeconomic indicators reflecting a country’s economic performance, including real GDP growth rate, merchandise export growth rate, current account balance (as a percentage of GDP), general government net lending/borrowing (as a percentage of GDP), and gross debt-to-GDP ratio.
India’s IER Rank stands at second among the top-10 leading economies, indicating strong resilience of the Indian economy to the daunting pandemic of COVID-19, said PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Sanjay Aggarwal.
The overall performance is projected at the second position after Germany in 2021, he added.
India’s real GDP growth rate is projected to be the highest at 11.5 percent in the year 2021 among the top-10 leading economies in the world, according to the industry body.
The merchandise export volume growth is estimated to be the strongest at 14 per cent in the year 2021, reflecting the great potential that the economy holds in terms of its international presence, said Aggarwal.
