NEW DELHI: India will recoup its position as the fifth-largest economy by 2025 and emerge as the third-largest by 2030 in dollar words and stay in that position until 2035, while China is presently prognosis to catch up with the US economy in 2028, five years earlier than in 2033 as formerly indicated, a prime economic study corporation has computed. The latest World Economic League Table 2021 published by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), which has projections for 193 countries up to 2035, asserted the working of the table had been performed on account of the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on worldwide economies.
“While virtually all countries have been affected by the pandemic, one of its impacts has been to redistribute economic momentum between countries with Asia doing best and Europe worst,” CEBR asserted in its report, assessing that the pandemic has had a $6 trillion GDP cost in 2020.
“India has been knocked off course somewhat through the impact of the pandemic. As a result, after overtaking the UK in 2019, the UK overtakes India again in this year’s forecasts and stays ahead till 2024 before India takes over again,” the report said.
As per the IMF, India arose as the fifth largest economy in 2019, ahead of the UK and France.
The Indian economy, Asia’s third-largest, has been poorly slammed by one of the severest lockdowns in the world employed to thwart the expanse of the fatal Covid-19 illness. As economic activity hampered, the economy rented out by a record of 23.9% in the June quarter. This was among the strongest constrictions among major and G-20 economies. But the unlocking of the lockdown since June and alleviating of curbs has resulted in rapid healing, and the reduction has narrowed to 7.5% in the September quarter. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) now tallies the economy to return to favorable vicinity by the third quarter of the current fiscal year that breaks off in March. The economy is forecast to register vigorous advancement in 2021-22 on account of the downward base and the stride of a comeback, which is discerned nurtured on the back of measures set free by the government and the central bank.
The bruising effect of the economy has also suggested that India will have to loiter to attain its mark of emerging as a $5 trillion economy by 2024. Economists assert it will take a few years before India’s economy reimburses the 7%-8% growth trajectory.
“We estimate that world GDP will fall by at least 4.0% this year, clearly with a huge margin of error. If this is correct, the fall will be more than twice as large as in 2009 during the financial crisis and will be the largest drop in GDP in one year since 1931 other than in years affected by war,” the CEBR said in its report.
“Provided that both fiscal and monetary action are taken on the extensive scale promised, there should be a sharp economic recovery in 2021 with world GDP growth of 3.4% although it will be 2022 before world GDP overtakes the 2019 level,” the report added.